Global Hunter Securities Raises Target on EXXI

MICHAEL BODINO, Global Hunter Securities (02/07/2011)
"EXXI completed a transition quarter that included a major acquisition and myriad financings. Production came in light but EBITDA came in higher than expected. All eyes are on the ultra deep. Encouraging data from Davy Jones, hopefully, leads to more good well news over the next couple months. We are maintaining our Accumulate rating but raising our 12-month price target from $33–$36 predicated on our FY11 proved NAV of $36.63/share, 6x calendar 2011 EBITDA and 5.3x calendar 2012 EBITDA.

Energy XXI released fiscal Q211 financial results and reported EPS, CFPS and EBITDA of $(0.02), $0.73, and $107.5 million, falling below our EPS estimate of $0.04 and CFPS estimate of $1.21 but exceeding our EBITDA estimate $97.5M as a result of lower-than-projected operating costs. EPS was noisy due to a number of transactions. Production fell 9.1% shy of our estimate of 29,383 boe/d, coming in at 29,383 boe/d, due to timing of closing of the Exxon Mobil transaction and disruptions caused by inclement weather. Revenues came in just 4% below our estimates due to better-realized prices. Lower-than-expected lease operating costs and production taxes offset the production shortfall during the quarter."

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