SunTrust Raises Target on TAT

NEAL DINGMANN, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey (02/03/2011)
"Increasing Price Target on Better Defined Opportunities: Our higher forecasted 2012 CFPS coupled with a slightly increased price-target multiple (due to higher peer group) increases our price target for TransAtlantic Petroleum from $4.25–$5/share.

Increasing Production, Earnings and Cash Flow Estimates: We believe the company has the acreage and equipment necessary to ramp production over 200% this year, provided solid execution. . .We see defined steps to reach over 10,000 boe/d by year-end. We are increasing our 2011 and 2012 production forecasts to over 7,500 and 11,000 boe/d vs. >3,700 and 7,800 boe/d previously. The higher production increases our 2011 and 2012 CFPS forecasts to $0.27 and $0.54 vs. $0.18 and $0.47 previously.

Acquisition Provides Upside with Little Dilution: TransAtlantic announced it was acquiring Direct Petroleum Exploration, which has significant acreage—and gas potential—in Bulgaria and Morocco. The purchase bridges existing operations in Turkey and Romania with >600,000 acres in Bulgaria and consolidates existing Morocco operations with a higher working interest (100% vs. 50% prior)."

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