NVS: 2011 Capital Plans and Operational Guidance

ALLAN STEPA, Desjardins Securities (02/03/2011)
"Novus announced a 2011 capital budget of CAD$60M (vs our CAD$55M), which is expected to result in average production of ~2,400 boe/d (vs. our ~2,719 boe/d) for the year, with oil and liquids comprising ~80% of average production. The company expects to exit 2011 with production of ~3,000 boe/d.

Novus is planning to drill 60 oil wells in 2011, with horizontals comprising 51 net of the total. The Viking development will remain the company's primary focus, with plans to drill 50 oil wells at Dodsland. Novus has been successful with its Dodsland Viking development; in 2010, the company successfully drilled 33 (100% WI) wells, while overall production in the area grew to 1,095 boe/d from 30 boe/d. . .The company remains financially well positioned to execute its capital program as it exited 2010 with no bank net debt and an undrawn credit facility of CAD$28m. Management expects the company to exit 2011 with net debt of ~CAD$25m.

We view the capital budget and 2011 guidance as neutral, given that planned capital expenditures came in higher than we had expected, while production guidance came in lower than we had forecast. However, we believe the company is financially well positioned to exploit its Dodsland (Viking) drilling inventory. As a result, we maintain our Buy rating and 12-month target price of CAD$1.40."

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