Credit Suisse Upgrades Shell to Outperform

KIM FUSTIER, Credit Suisse (01/31/2011)
"Upgrading to Outperform: We are raising Shell to OP from Neutral and increasing our TP to 2,560p. We believe Shell is only at the start of a multiyear turnaround in cash-flow generation led by the heavy investments of the past five years. Shell should deliver the best CF growth among big-cap integrated oils over 2010–15 (42% vs. 27% avg.) and we believe this growth is not fully priced in. More importantly, we think Shell can sustain an attractive 9% free cash yield over 2012–15 despite rising capex.

Investment Case: We believe investors should reward companies where free cash-flow growth is within sight. Shell's upstream cash flow is set to grow by 30% over the next two years thanks to mega projects Pearl GTL, Qatargas 4 and Jackpine; Pearl alone should generate CAD$6B of annual CF in 2013. We believe this cash-flow growth is sustainable until at least 2015 given the duration of cost recovery on PSCs. Shell's investment cycle is not over, and the company will need to raise capex again to $30B to fund the next wave of projects (Australian LNG, NAM shale gas), but not before 2013–14. Finally, Shell has above-average earnings exposure to a cyclical recovery in refining and chemicals."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: