Wellington West Raises Target on AAA

ROBERT WINSLOW, Wellington West Capital Markets (01/25/2011)
"Drilling continues to show attractive grades, shallow depth—supports low cost project: Hole 08 shows attractive KCl grades, shallow depths—open pittable? DK-10-08 intersected two prominent potash zones at 164m–181m deep, supportive of an open-pit mine: 2.0m at 31.6% KCl and 7.5m at 22.1% KCl.

Latest drill results suggest resource expansion potential. Attractive mineralization of hole 8 gives management confidence that deposit extends even further south; offers resource expansion potential. Lower-cost status moving closer to reality—reducing assumed costs.

Target upped to $1.65 from $1.20—approaches KCL takeout multiple. DCF drives $1.72 NAVPS12.5% (fd, ff), or 0.49x EV/NAV, which compares to 0.45x EV/NAV paid for Potash One post BFS and pre ag sector rally. Our capex estimate drops to $750M (+15% contingency) from $800M and opex falls to $75/ton from $80/ton on rising likelihood of open-pit ops."

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