RDS: Looking Beyond the Quarter

SERGIO MOLISANI, UniCredit Research (01/24/2011)
"4Q10 estimates revised down. Prior to the results release on 3 Feb, we cut our Q410 net profit estimate by 18% to US$4.3B to factor in: i) divestments of upstream assets in Q4 (ca. 35 Kboe/d); ii) lower dividends from the Malaysian affiliates; iii) start-up costs expensed to the P&L (instead of being capitalized) pending the FID of the related projects; iv) higher refinery maintenance (planned and unplanned) and margin pressure in downstream. These factors should offset higher-than-expected production (+110 Kboe/d to 3,405 Kboe/d) mainly driven by higher volumes from Nigeria and colder weather.

Not a great quarter. . .We now expect Q410 net profit of US$4.3B, +65% YOY (-11% QOQ). Upstream earnings are expected at US$3.7B, +32% YOY (+6% QOQ) thanks to oil price increase and higher production (+2% YOY), which should offset the above factors and the production mix effect (lower weight of GoM, higher incidence of Nigeria and weather-related gas volumes sold in Europe at spot prices).

Multiyear rerating. Our Buy on Shell remains firmly hinged on top quartile, visible and high-value production growth, a reduction of nonproductive capital, faster investment payback, better asset return and improving financial flexibility to increase investments and dividends."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: