Morgan Keegan's Select Idea for 2011: EXXI

CHRIS PIKUL, Morgan Keegan (01/04/2011)
"Following a strategic $1 billion acquisition from XOM, Energy XXI is positioning itself as a major player in the shallow-water shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, investors are anxiously awaiting data from two 'ultra-deep' wells, each of which are delineating substantial apparent discoveries. The company is still drilling to total depth in both wellbores, but information released to date indicates the geologic model remains viable.

Given the strong outperformance of oily stocks in 2010, especially in Q4 (stocks up 35% vs. 14% increase in oil price), we think further equity appreciation may be more highly levered to further increases in oil prices, which mitigates the risk/reward a bit in our view. Nevertheless, given an uncertain outlook for natural gas prices near term, we expect continued investor migration into oily stocks. As such, we have sought out an oily E&P stock with meaningful drill-bit catalysts and an attractive valuation as our Select Idea for 2011."

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