AAA: Underpinned by Strong Ag Fundamentals, Potential Low-cost Production, Partners

ROBERT WINSLOW, Wellington West Capital Markets (01/07/2011)
"Expecting robust grain fundamentals to underpin fertilizer equities: With grain prices +70% above 2010 lows, crop yields are a key priority to driving higher potash demand and prices.

Junior potash company with strong government support, low-cost potential: Ethiopia is keen to develop KCl exports; also Asia proximity, shallow ore, desert locale (i.e., solar ponds) offer low-cost production potential.

Partners temper near-term (and arguably long-term) finance risk: Liberty Mutual Group's $12M cash injection (Nov '10) should take AAA through BFS, with more investment through construction phase likely.

Undervalued—AAA trades at 0.21x EV/NAV v. peers at 0.29x: If AAA traded at same EV/NAV as peers today, shares would rise ~30% to $0.90; we also see further rerating with BFS planned by year-end '11."

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