VST: Qara-Dagh Progressing

GAVIN WYLIE, Scotia Capital Inc. (12/21/2010)
"Vast announced that it has successfully installed the intermediate casing string at 2,100m depth to prevent problems related to hole instability in the Tertiary. The drilling issues appear to be solved and drilling is expected to move much quicker to its planned total depth in the Cretaceous. The primary zones of interest in the Cretaceous (Kometan and Qamchuqa) were originally expected to occur at ~2,500m (now likely lower). We expect test results as early as late February.

We maintain our 1-Sector Outperform rating on Vast and one-year target price of $1.40 per share based on our revised risked NAVPS of $1.37 vs. $1.43 previously. In the context of our unrisked NAVPS of $5.12, Vast remains one of the highest reward stories in our coverage universe but also extremely speculative. Results from the Qara Dagh-1 well remain the company's most significant catalysts in the near term. We estimate the remaining costs for Qara Dagh-1 well at ~US$15M (~US$7M net to Vast)."

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