VNR's Big Payback

ETHAN BELLAMY, Robert W. Baird & Co. (12/21/2010)
"We are initiating coverage of VNR with an Outperform rating and a $32 target, implying 26% total return. We believe VNR won't pay up to bring in ENP simply to clean up the remaining public stub, which could be keeping a lid on VNR units. Further, we see VNR paying out a portion of the accretion from the ENP acquisition in 1Q11 that could serve as a near-term catalyst. . .Distribution growth likely in the short run. With the ENP transaction likely to close at year-end, we expect VNR to immediately pass through a portion of the accretion (7%-11%) to VNR holders, which is likely to be a near-term catalyst for the units. We estimate a distribution per unit of $0.56 payable with respect to 4Q10 to be announced in Jan. 2011 (1% sequential growth). Secular growth story intact. The upstream MLP sector remains our favorite place to be in MLPs, with ~$250 billion M&A opportunity for the upstream MLPs."

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