Jacob Securities Initiates Coverage of ETX

JOHN MCILVEEN, Jacob Securities, Inc. (12/10/2010)
"Etrion Corporation is a pure-play solar generator in Italy. Lundin Petroleum recently distributed its 71 million shares of Etrion (~40%) to Lundin Petroleum shareholders via the NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. . .Etrion has a done-it-before management team. The team has in-depth experience in renewable power and project management and has developed many solar projects. . .[the company also] has 42.2 MW online, 15.2 MW under construction and a pipeline of ~200 MW. The acquisitions have positioned Etrion for organic growth. The online assets generate a projected EBITDA of €28.3m and the under-construction assets will add €8.5m.

Our forecast only includes the 57.4 MW of permitted and financed projects. Rather than include the individual projects not permitted or financed, we use a premium multiple of 15x LTM EV/EBITDA to reflect the growth inherent in the company's pipeline. Utilities' LTM EV/EBITDA is ~10x, reflecting a low-yield, low-growth profile. High-yield renewable IPP's LTM EV/EBITDA is ~12x, reflecting a high-yield, higher-growth profile. We use 15x for growth IPP's until such time as pipeline prospects are thin and we revert to a 12x high-yield multiple.

Etrion should demonstrate a $40M EBITDA run rate in Q411. We are initiating coverage of Etrion with a Buy rating and a one-year price target of CAD$1.44."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: