RE: Q310 Results Slightly Better than Expected

KEN LIN, Mackie Research (11/17/2010)
"Rock Energy announces closing of $10M financing. As we are off restriction, we have updated Rock's estimates to reflect the recent financing and Q310 financial results. . .the company reported Q310 production of 3,739 boe/d compared to our expectation of 3,875 boe/d. CFPS of $0.21 was higher than our forecast of $0.16 due to lower than anticipated costs and higher realized prices. We had expected heavy oil differentials to widen more than they did. Current production is ~4,000 boe/d. Guidance for 2011 shows 20% growth: Rock expects to spend $54M in 2011 to achieve average production of 4,400–4,600 boe/d, representing production growth of ~20%.

Under our current forecast, Rock is on track to grow production by 20% over the next year through organic growth opportunities. Additionally, though the Montney drilling program is unlikely to contribute much cash flow in the near term, delineation of the play will set the stage for a quick ramp-up when natural gas prices recover. We rate Rock an ACCUMULATE and have a target price of $5."

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