AAV: Ahead of Schedule on Glacier Montney

ROBERT FITZMARTYN, First Energy Capital (11/29/2010)
"Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. continues to advance its Glacier Montney project, though in the third quarter it became apparent that it is ahead of schedule. Further, we observed revised upward guidance coming out of the period. A strong resource footprint at Glacier continues to secure the investment thesis in the stock, forming the basis of our prior Top-Pick ranking. While we continue to appreciate how Advantage runs its business in virtually every fundamental category, growth through lean natural gas molecules places projected CFPS at only 3%, which is among the lowest in the group, noting that debt to forward cash flow exiting 2011e is pegged at 1.7x, which is above peer group averages. That said, we continue to highlight how the company is a significant free cash-flow generator within our forecast. We continue to rank Advantage as a Top Pick within the context of our natural gas price forecast."

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