AAV: Growth Ahead

ROBERT FITZMARTYN, First Energy Capital (10/19/2010)
“Trades at 4.6x 2011e CFPS (6.5x group average), 5.8x 2011e EV/DACF (6.9x group average) and 0.7x 2011e NAV (0.9x group average) – too steep a discount for one of the better growth stories and one of the better balance sheets to fund that growth. We estimate 22% production per share growth over the next year (2010e vs. 2011e) and for it to only be 45% drawn on its bank lines at year-end 2011e (i.e., $288 million in bank line room). Growth is economic even at lower gas prices (e.g., 36% IRR under $4.00/mcf AECO) and should extend materially beyond 2011 owing to 500 estimated Upper Montney locations at Glacier. Each 50 mmcf/d phase (similar to phase III, which is currently ramping up) requires only 25-30 initial wells and then seven to 10 wells/year thereafter to sustain production at that level for a not insignificant $2.65/share in value. Other multizone potential includes the Lower Montney and Nikanassin over these lands.”

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