EXXI: Operations on Track

DAVID DECKELBAUM, UBS Securities (10/26/2010)
"EXXI's Q111 clean EPS/CFPS of $0.08/$0.97 was above our $0.06 EPS estimate but below $1.08 CFPS. Consensus expected $0.05/$1.15. Production of 25.9 mboe/d was 2.5% below our 26.5M boe/d estimate, offset by 2.6% higher realized pricing of $60.4/boe and total adjusted unit costs of $57.87/boe, slightly above our est. Current production volumes of 27M boe/d are in line with our Q211 outlook and FY11 guidance of 27M–28M boe/d appears quite achievable.

Ultra-deep catalyst calendar remains rich. Significant upside remains: Davy Jones continues to be on schedule for Q311 production and is still quite additive to valuation at these levels as we see shares trading at a 20% premium to our 1P NAV. Additionally, EXXI mentioned MMR is testing up-dip intervals with Davy Jones No. 2 that could expand resource estimates. The waiting game continues on Blackbeard East as the well deepens from 25,990–29,950 ft., while the latest prospect, Lafitte, spud in the beginning of October. . .Valuation: $26 price target. Our price target is based on our 1P and 2P NAV's, implying 5.4x 2011E EBITDA"

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