Don't Worry About EEP

JOHN EDWARDS, Morgan Keegan (07/29/2010)
"Upgrading to Outperform: We are upgrading Enbridge Energy to outperform as we believe that the ~12% drop in unit value over the last three days over concerns regarding EEP's Michigan oil spill are overblown.

Elk City Acquisition could support higher distributions: We are further encouraged by EEP's $682mm acquisition of the Elk City Gathering System from Atlas Pipeline, announced on Wednesday. We believe the incremental EBITDA generated from these assets will support EEP growing its distribution at roughly 5%, the high end of its previous guidance of 2%-5%.

Valuation attractive: EEP has pulled back ~12% from its recent high of $60.20 on liability worries over its Michigan oil spill among other factors. We believe EEP's liability is manageable and the $850mm in lost market cap is an over-reaction. We are valuing EEP units at 6.75%-7% yield range equating to a 12-month price range of $60-$62. Adding $4.13/unit of distributions results in a total return potential of 21%-25%."

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