VNR Raises the Bar

MICHAEL BLUM, Wells Fargo (08/03/2010)
"Q2 results were in line with our forecast, but VNR's 10% yr/yr distribution increase beat our expectations. VNR indicated the acquisition market for mature crude oil and natural gas assets remains active. VNR made a number of potential offers during Q2 and intends to continue pursuing acquisition opportunities over the course of the year. According to our model, VNR could increase its distribution at a five-year CAGR of 4%–9% assuming $100–$200MM of acquisitions/year. We remain comfortable with our Outperform rating. VNR trades at an attractive tax-deferred yield of 8.6% with meaningful distribution growth upside tied to future acquisitions. We are tweaking our 2010E DCF per unit to $2.87 from $2.89 and 2011E to $2.84 from $2.85."

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