ETP: Adjusting Estimates Post Q2

RICHARD GROSS, Barclays Capital (08/13/2010)
"While we reduce near-term distribution growth estimates, our view is that ETP can accelerate distribution growth through execution of larger-scale, high-return projects in Marcellus/Eagle Ford, leveraging its presence in the fast-growing shale play.

ETP reported Q2 DCF of $200MM vs. our $214MM. Intrastate segment (~55% of total) saw EBITDA decline 14% YoY driven by 15% drop in transportation volume and drop in East/West Texas basis, which reached $0.12 compared to $0.45 a year ago. While basis improved in July/Aug compared to Q2, we believe it will remain depressed compared to 2007/2008 level. We are reducing 2010 and 2011 EBITDA estimates and forecasting flat distribution growth in 2011 vs. 5% estimated previously. Key upside to our estimates includes larger-scale project contributions from Marcellus and Eagle Ford shales, where ETP has begun to execute smaller-size projects."

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