Merrill Lynch Raises Target on ETP

GABE MOREEN, Merrill Lynch (08/10/2010)
"ETP reported Q210 distributable cash flow (DCF) of $200M, in-line with our estimate. Although a little light relative to expectations, we thought the quarter more good news than bad: a) additional shale pipeline projects; b) signs of life for basis differentials in the TX intrastate markets; and c) increased gathering and processing volumes in the Midstream segment coupled with reduced operating expenses. ETP announced plans to build a 50-mile 350MMcf/d capacity pipeline to gather rich gas in the Eagle Ford. We are particularly intrigued by ETP's entry into the Eagle Ford shale and think there could be additional opportunities in the play.

We revisited our model taking into account Q210 results and ETP's transaction with ETE. With an attractive backlog of projects, we see no reason to change our expectation that ETP will resume cash. We are maintaining our 2010/11/12 distribution estimates of $3.58/3.70/3.86, respectively. Given the retirement of the 12.3M units associated with the MEP sale, we see distribution coverage remaining decent at 1x–1.2x through 2012. Our new $53 price objective (PO), from $50, is based on an annualized Q311 distribution forecast of $3.72 per limited partner (LP) unit and 7% target yield (from 7.5%). We believe a lower target yield is warranted given sector yield compression."

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