Long-Time Long-Term!

GEORDIE MARK, Haywood Securities (07/28/2010)
As the absolute spread decreases, the opportunity for convergence trades decreases.

The week: UxC U3O8 Spot Price starts the week up US$4.25, adding to last week's small uptick, while uranium funds increased by a slightly greater amount, on average, on an asset value-weighted basis, tightening the Spot:FIP (Fund Implied Price) spread, with the FIP of uranium below Spot Monday.

The Spot:FIP spread has decreased in absolute terms, as it moved from $1.33 to $1.21, still above its recent average in absolute terms. This week's moving average of $0.12 The Spot:FIP spread remained in positive territory (Spot > FIP). A positive Spot:FIP spread means unencumbered physical uranium held in funds is, on average, priced below the prevailing Spot market value. Negative FIP spreads have historically been a bullish indicator for the Spot Price, and we note that for much of June, ahead of the current rally in spot price, the Spot:FIP was negative. We note the SPOT:T&P FIP spread was positive Monday. Our U-T FIP estimate is currently below Spot and BAP (Broker Average Price). We continue to see opportunity in uranium funds that are trading below their net asset values.

Our TSX:U (target C$7.50) NAV shows a FIP (Jul 26) of US#1.93 below Spot ($42.13 or $0.48 above Spot (Jul 190))

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