RDS: Good Downstream Numbers Expected

GUDMUND HALLE ISFELDT, DnB NOR Markets (07/26/2010)
"We expect adj. Q2 EPS at $0.66 vs. $0.65 for consensus, and the DPS unchanged at $0.42. Royal Dutch Shell enjoys ramp-up from Sakhalin gas and BC-10. The Nigerian situation has improved considerable implying more output, especially from Soku. Downstream is expected to deliver good numbers. Royal Dutch Shell delivers Q2 numbers on Thursday 29 July, and we rate it Buy with a GBp 2,200 12-month price target.

Upstream - Net CCS profit is expected at $3.3bn vs. $3.2bn for consensus, mainly due to high scheduled maintenance activity, and in part due to the lack of a Malaysian unit dividend c.$0.15–0.20bn

Downstream - Net CCS profit is expected at $0.89bn vs. $0.92bn for consensus. Refining margins have held up well during Q2, improvements are seen both for refining and petrochemicals."

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