Can Brazil Reach Lofty Oil Output Targets?

PAVEL MOLCHANOV, Raymond James (07/19/2010)
As visitors from around the world converge on Rio for the Olympic Games in 2016, chances are they will probably not see the deepwater rigs operating hundreds of miles from the Brazilian coast. But trust us, they'll be there. And while most tourists will not be especially interested in the Brazilian oil industry, it is the wealth created by that industry which will enable, in part, South America's first-ever Olympics to be funded. So sizable are the oil riches located off Brazil's coast that, by the middle of this decade, Brazil is likely to surpass Mexico as the #1 oil producer in Latin America. By the end of the decade, Brazil could be producing on par with, or even more than, Canada. Of course, Brazil is not the only country with aggressive goals for oil production. Case in point: Based on its 'official' service contract targets, Iraq could theoretically be the world's largest oil producer by 2020, pumping around 10 MMbpd. The difference is that Brazil's targets are much more credible. Ambitious, yes. Pie in the sky, no.

Does Brazil Have the Projects to Drive Its Oil Production Growth?

The table below shows the major Brazilian oil projects in the development pipeline, with startup expected over the 2010–2014 timeframe. It's an impressive list—arguably the most impressive of any non-OPEC country.

Brazil's pipeline of major oil developments

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