RIG: Deeply Undervalued; Selloff Overdone

ROBIN SHOEMAKER, Citigroup Global Markets (06/11/2010)
"Continuous and unrelenting selling pressure on RIG since the Macondo well blowout has wiped out the gains the stock made after we added it to TPL on March 10, 2009 at $52.30 per share. Although the stock today is deeply undervalued. . . the stock remains vulnerable to market speculation and to legitimate concerns about further potential difficulties and complications in stopping the blowout.

RIG has 14 deepwater rigs in the GOM today. . .some of the company's drilling contracts are at risk of cancellation under force majeure. Our estimate of 'at risk' contract backlog for RIG is $1.8 bn out of total company backlog of $27.9 bn as of June 1, 2010. Potential loss of revenue and profit is relatively small.

Selloff Overdone, Capping of the Macondo Blowout May Spark a Recovery—We maintain our Buy/High-Risk rating on RIG shares because we believe that the stock is deeply undervalued, trading at only 63% of estimated NAV of $70 per share and at 5x estimated 2010 earnings of $8.60 per share. The stock may be unable to stage a sustained recovery until the blowout is capped, but it is almost certain to attract the attention of deep value investors when that occurs."

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