RE: Heavy Oil Drum Beats On

LEON KNIGHT, Macquarie Equities Research (05/10/2010)
"Rock reported 1Q10 production of 3,524boe/d versus our 3,637boe/d forecast, largely on account of lower gas volumes. CFPS of C$0.22 was below our C$0.24 on account of slightly lower volumes and higher unit opex. The company's production has increased to ~3.7mboe/d through break-up with liquids weighting now through 65%.

The company's bank lines witnessed a small increase to C$50m (from C$47m) at its most recent semi-annual review. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with an estimated 2010 D/CF of 0.9x vs. the group average of 1.4x.

With strong cash-flow generation from its heavy oil business, the company is uniquely positioned to deliver above-average production per-share growth through free cash flow. We also anticipate further definition of its tight gas potential at Elmworth will continue to gain momentum through the summer. Additionally, we see further potential catalysts emerging through clearing prices of several large heavy oil packages currently in the market. We reiterate our Outperform recommendation and we are adding Rock to our Global Oil & Gas Focus List."

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