Salman Partners Initiates Coverage of TGL

GORDON CURRIE, Salman Partners (05/03/2010)
"TransGlobe Energy is a Canadian company, but has chosen to focus exclusively on North Africa and the Middle East where there is significantly greater exploration potential. . .at the same time, TransGlobe is not drilling expensive, wildcat exploratory wells, but conducting a balanced drilling program, featuring low-risk development projects while exposing the company to exploratory prospects that have the potential to increase reserves by more than 50% this year alone.

At this point, TransGlobe operates only in Egypt and Yemen, and although there is some political risk in both countries, they have long histories of stable fiscal regimes and uninterrupted oil and gas operations.

The company has traditionally financed its growth primarily by reinvesting cash flow. It issues equity sparingly and is cautious about the use of debt. We are initiating coverage of TransGlobe with a US$9.00 target price, which is based on a 7.0x multiple of forecast cash flow. That represents a 14% premium to Net Asset Value, but we think a premium is justified by the company's growth potential, including the first quarter discovery at East Ghazalat."

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