Canaccord Raises Target on TGL

J. FREDERICK KOZAK, Canaccord Genuity (05/07/2010)
". . .The company continues to have success on the Arta field on the Egyptian West Gharib concession as it delineates what is now looking to be a large areal play in the Nukhul Formation

Strong Start to 2010

The company saw total oil production in the quarter of 9,694 bbl/d, up 12.0% over the previous quarter and essentially in line with our 9,650 bbUd estimate. The company beat our cash flow estimate by 4.5% due to continued production strength and higher sales pricing in Egypt and Yemen.

TransGlobe's net production from West Gharib averaged 6,848 bbl/d in Q1/10, which was up 18% from Q4/09 volumes due predominantly to successful drilling at Hana and Hoshia as well as strong incremental additions from Arta Field fracture stimulations. In April, production averaged 6,577 bbl/d and has since increased to 7,400 bbl/d in the first week of May following a number of pump changes.

Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the parts valuation of the company's fully diluted Proved plus Probable plus Possible (3P) reserves, as well as risked potential exploration upside from its Egyptian opportunities (See Figure 10). Our base case valuation is C$6.40/share while our exploration upside from Egypt could contribute an additional C$2.46 in potential upside.

We are maintaining our BUY rating and are increasing our target to C$8.75 from C$7.00."

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