Weekly Energy Outlook

TERRY PETERS, Canaccord Genuity (03/25/2009)
Near-month crude oil closed out the week at US$51.06/bbl, up 10.4% on the week and down 49.9% from this time last year.

For the week ended March 17, 2009, the number of noncommercial net contracts increased by 19,522 to a net long number of 13,507 contracts. The number of commercial net contracts decreased by 9,486 resulting in a net short number of 16,390 contracts during the latest period.

Near-month natural gas closed out the week at US$4.23/mmbtu, up 7.5% on the week and down 53.4% from this time last year.

For the week ended March 17, 2009, the number of noncommercial net contracts increased by 1,123 to a net short number of 115,187 contracts. The number of commercial net contracts decreased by 1,253 resulting in a net long number of 76,847 contracts during the latest period.

As of March 20, 2009, year-to-date the oil sands index has outperformed oil and gas futures and the other TSX Composite indices. Gas futures are down 24.8% year-to-date versus oil futures, which are up 14.5% year-to-date. The S&P/TSX Composite is down 5.4% year-to-date and the E&P subindex is down 4.7% year-to-date. Our junior E&P subindex is up 5.2% year-to-date. Our international E&P subindex is up 25.2% year-to-date and our oil sands index is up 31.3% year-to-date.

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