The UNG and Natural Gas Prices: Useful Trading Tool or Speculative Anomaly?

JOHN FREEMAN, Raymond James (07/20/2009)
"We believe that the UNG has been propping up gas prices for the past few months, therefore delaying the inevitable forced rebalance of supply and demand. Regardless of our outlook on gas prices—which, to be clear, remains extremely bearish in the near term—investors are better off investing in gas-weighted E&P companies than in the UNG.

By investing in the UNG, investors have unwittingly been 'subsidizing' gas prices for E&P producers – while hurting their own returns. While commodity ETFs like the UNG are a simple way for investors to get access to the commodity market, unfortunately the UNG has grown well beyond its critical mass. We would argue that it is no longer an efficient investment vehicle, and in fact it appears to be a distraction to the futures market."

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