EXXI: Very Good News All Around

DUANE GRUBERT, Susquehanna Financial Group (09/04/2009)
"VERY GOOD NEWS ALL AROUND!: EXXI's reserves are up, production is flat and expected to stay flat, debt is down $22 million from the previous quarter, a material $53 million insurance settlement will further reduce debt, and a new partner improves ongoing exploration project economics. We remain enthusiastic on both EXXI equity and debt securities. We think bears will have trouble finding any fodder in the annual report.

FLASH!: Four hours following EXXI's earnings release in London, Company announced a debt exchange. We see accepting the exchange as a rational choice, but depending on a holder's situation, we also believe holding the original Notes going forward also looks good, as we expect the Notes to continue to trade up towards parity with the group, in any case. We currently assess that 'parity' would imply a trading level for the Notes up of to around 85 (vs. recent trades around 72.5).

$3 as an interim step. If the market were to pay full value for Netherland Sewell's likely conservative estimate of contingent exploration reserves based on around $5.50 normalized gas pricing, we would expect EXXI shares to trade up to around $3 per share. We expect more exploration success in additional prospects and zones, and maintain our $6 per share one-year target price. The market is currently paying for no exploration success in our view."

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