Wellington West Initiates Coverage on RPG

SEAN PEASGOOD, Wellington West Capital Markets (12/01/2009)
"We estimate Ram Power's ('Ram') un-risked NAV to be near C$14.00 per fully diluted, fully financed share based on the company's prospects for geothermal power operations in the Americas. We also estimate these potential operations could generate approximately $225 million of annual EBITDA by 2015 once near- and mid-term projects are fully commissioned.

We have a positive view on the macro fundamentals for geothermal energy given its green energy attributes, base load nature, and competitive levelized cost versus other energy sources. Specifically in the western U.S., there is a strong appetite for geothermal power given state-enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which mandate certain levels of electricity required to be delivered from renewable sources by a future date. In addition, with an increasing concern about U.S. energy security, geothermal offers a highly reliable, low-cost resource that is not reliant on imported fossil fuels.

We are initiating coverage on Ram Power with a Buy rating and C$5.00 target price, implying 0.3x our un-risked NAV and 1.0x our risked NAV. With a strong management team and board combined with a strong development portfolio and extensive pipeline of properties, Ram Power is well positioned to create shareholder value.

The company plans to use the ~C$170M of net IPO proceeds to bring multiple projects on-line over the next two years. Combined with government grants (drilling and energy grants) and potential Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Guarantees, we believe Ram will quickly scale to become a meaningful cash generator. With more than 250MW either operating or contracted (i.e., power purchase agreements 'PPA') and another 700MW of pipeline projects, we believe Ram offers a relatively low risk way to invest in geothermal power developers with significant upside potential."

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