Is This Lithium Co. Poised for Premium Valuation?
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Atlas Lithium Corp., February 5, 2026

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On February 5, 2026, H.C. Wainwright analyst Heiko F. Ihle, CFA, reiterated a Buy rating and US$12.00 price target on Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ), citing the company's positioning to benefit from supply chain diversification amid geopolitical tensions and the near-term assembly of its lithium processing plant.

Ihle noted that Brazil's lithium market remains a significant opportunity and that Atlas' longer-term production profile should command a premium as buyers increasingly prioritize supply diversification. The analyst expects this dynamic to become more visible through ongoing M&A activity or additional offtake agreements, and believes Atlas is well-positioned as production from its site is expected to begin in the intermediate term.

Regarding project development, the report highlighted that on December 22, 2025, Atlas Lithium released a progress update on project management and construction supervision contracting. Management indicated it had entered the final stage of various key steps, with the contract anticipated to be awarded later in Q1 2026 and commencement following shortly thereafter. The firm's lithium processing plant has been delivered to Brazil and remains ready for assembly.

The analyst's valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model using the Grota do Cirilo project as an analog to a potential mining scenario at Das Neves. The DCF yields a project NAV of US$638.1 million using a 15% discount rate, to which a 0.45x NAV multiple is applied to account for the project's development-stage nature. After adding pro forma cash of US$31.0 million, the value of Atlas' ownership in Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (ATCX; NASDAQ) at US$8.2 million, and subtracting debt of US$10.1 million, the model yields a total value of US$316.2 million, or US$11.87 per share, rounded to a US$12.00 price target.

The Das Neves project model assumes initial mining of 250,000 tonnes of ore in 2026, ramping to 1.0 million tonnes in 2027–2029, and further expanding to 1.75 million tonnes from 2030 onward, with modeled production continuing into 2040. A lithium grade of 1.4%, a 60% process plant recovery rate, and a lithium concentrate price of US$1,500 per tonne are used throughout. Operating costs are estimated at US$75 per tonne in 2026, declining to US$70 per tonne thereafter.

Near-term catalysts include monitoring costs as production matures, with the analyst reiterating low-cost expectations for the site. Ihle also highlighted the recent start of trading for Atlas Critical Minerals on the NYSE American, which should allow Atlas Lithium to gain additional liquidity if needed. The Salinas Project is described as a key area of future growth that has been mostly ignored by the market.

Key risks include commodity price risk, technical risk associated with resource definition, and risk of construction costs at Das Neves.

As of February 4, 2026, ATLX shares traded at US$4.94, representing a 58.8% discount to the US$12.00 price target. The company had an enterprise value of approximately US$107.9 million, a market capitalization of US$129 million, and 26.1 million shares outstanding on a pro forma basis.