Canaccord Raises Target on TransGlobe

J. FREDERICK KOZAK, Canaccord Genuity (01/28/2010)
"On January 28, TransGlobe released its 2009 year-end reserve report. The company saw 40% 2P reserve growth in Egypt while Yemen 2P reserves saw a 5% decline, reflecting the mature nature of these producing assets. Total company 2P reserves increased 22% to 24.2 million barrels and reserve value increased 122% over end of 2008.

. . .Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the parts valuation of the company’s fully diluted Proved plus Probable (2P) reserves (See Figure 4), as well as risked potential exploration upside from its Egyptian opportunities (See Figure 5). Our base case valuation has increased to C$5.30/share (from C$3.98/share) while our exploration upside from Egypt could contribute an additional C$2.18 in potential upside. However, the first East Ghazalat results are expected within the month. This concession in Egypt's Western Desert has the potential to be a game-changer for the company. Including the new 2P asset valuation as well as a portion of the exploration upside, we are increasing our target price to C$7.00 from C$6.25."

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