Mexico May Have to Cut All Oil Exports as Early as 2012

Energy and Capital (11/18/2008)
"The IEA's oil report paints a sobering picture for future oil supply. Quite frankly, some of the numbers are downright frightful. Finding 64 million barrels per day of new capacity between now and 2030 will be a monumental task for producers, no matter how rosy your personal outlook is for supply.

It's difficult not to see a monumental shift in energy is approaching. Just take a look at the report's oil field decline statistics. Over one-quarter of the world's oil production comes from just 20 super giant oil fields. Some of those fields have been producing for more than five decades.

The Saudis are pumping so much water into Ghawar now, I'm surprised more people don't mistake the field for the world's largest wishing well.

When Ghawar suffers the same fate as Cantarell, perhaps more people will take notice. I can't help think of how Cantarell's fate will affect us. Production at Cantarell has drastically plummeted. Cantarell is only projected to produce 700,000 barrels per day in 2009 (the field topped over 2 million barrels per day just four years ago).

If you think the loss of Cantarell isn't a big deal, I'd suggest selling your car. Unless Mexico can successfully boost production, the country may be forced to cut all exports as early as 2012. That will have serious repercussions for us considering 11% of our oil imports come from Mexico (our 3rd largest importer)."

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