Crude Oil—The Big Momma Market Vulnerable to Wild Price Swings

Trader Tracks (07/24/2009)
"We are always watching crude oil as it is the major commodity affecting many of the others. Further, oil is a signal leader for the commodity group including precious metals. Traders are driving oil higher in the face of over-supply and falling depression demand. Why is this? We think the beginnings of inflation have entered the picture and traders are long oil for potentially bad summer weather. Funds take big oil positions and are often long or short only. Our 4th quarter oil price forecast is $80. This is repeated by some of the largest traders. Keep in mind this forecast reflects normal inflation, demand, supply and no hurricanes or Middle East violence. That stuff makes prices higher.

Here is a nasty, interesting idea: Would Israel, Iran, Russia and the USA manufacture a potential war incident to spike falling oil prices? I wonder. Some analysts are forecasting $20 oil due to the depression. This kind of maneuver would pop oil much higher. We believe anything is possible as Middle Easterners are spending at the rate of $80 oil when today's price is in the mid-$60s. Believe it or not, they have budgets too and are in trouble."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: