KBC Energy Economics' Weekly Oil Comment

oilbarrel.com (01/13/2010)
"KBC says: 'The speculators are back,' adding, 'just when you thought it was safe, our old friends the speculators have reared their pretty heads once again.' The latest weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission captured in another KBC chart shows that in the run up to yearend a wave of money has moved into oil. There is no reason for this other than a belief that the medium- and long-term direction for oil is up.

KBC speculates that all we are seeing is the result of lots of New Year resolutions. What shall we do with our money now that bank interest barely exists and that traditional gilts and equities are hard to call? I know, let's put it into commodities.

Like all or most New Year resolutions this may not last very long. But don't count on it. You can go on forever analyzing supply and demand, recession and all. The fact is that speculation is now the main determinant of the oil price. In 2008 when the oil price was soaring George Soros said: 'No-one knows how much of the oil price is due to speculators. It could be as much as two thirds,' He was right. He said that when the oil price was US$140 a barrel. It fell to US$32 a barrel.

If the price continues to rise in the next few weeks it could be tempting to think we are back in the Casino-like oil market conditions of 2008, or so says KBC. But they have been wrong before haven't they?"

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