"The global peak in oil production will be the single greatest event of our generation. And I'm still surprised to find that some people fail to believe that peak oil is right around the corner."
That's what I told my Energy and Capital readers in 2007. Interestingly, that was right about the time the Saudis believed that $50 per barrel was an "optimal" price.
Since then, we've followed oil's unprecedented rise to $147 per barrel last July and subsequent fall due to the financial crisis. The turmoil has caused oil prices to plummet back to $60 a barrel. Now, whenever I hear people say that cheap gas prices are back for good, I can't help but sigh. They just don't understand the impact that peak oil will have on our society.
Named after geophysicist M. King Hubbert, peak oil refers to the point when global oil production reaches a peak. I'd also like to take a moment to reiterate another point I've made over and over again to readers: Peak oil is not about how much oil is left in the ground, but rather the rate at which we can produce that oil.
I'm pretty sure my readers have seen the classic bell-shaped curve at one point or another, even if you've never taken a Peak Oil : 101 class. Fifty-two years ago, Hubbert delivered his famous speech to the American Petroleum Institute, accurately predicting the year that U.S oil production would peak.
Let's fast-forward to 2005, when the Hirsch Report was released. The report, created for the U.S. Department of Energy, presented another dire warning that peak oil was upon us. The Hirsch report came to several conclusions on peaking oil production. In essence, it will take an enormous amount of time and money to mitigate the effects of peak oil, which can take up to two decades.
On Wednesday, you can tack on another date to remember after peak oil.
In two days, the International Energy Agency will release their annual energy report.
So what can we expect from the IEA this year?
For starters, we can say goodbye to cheap oil again."
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Energy and Capital